This Saturday night, Gray Maynard will be making his 15th appearance inside the UFC’s Octagon. Should his hand not be raised in victory, it could very well be the last time we see him fighting under the Zuffa banner.

Maynard’s career with the UFC has been an interesting one. Following The Ultimate Fighter 5 finale, Maynard quickly moved up the lightweight rankings by defeating the likes of Nate Diaz, Dennis Siver, Frankie Edgar, Roger Huerta, Kenny Florian, and Jim Miller. But following his victory over Florian at UFC 118, things began to go downhill quickly for Maynard.

At UFC 125, Maynard received his first chance at UFC gold when he squared off against Frankie Edgar for a second time. Maynard nearly secured a TKO victory in the first round as he had Edgar hurt badly on at least three separate occasions. As the fight progressed, it became clear that Edgar had the better conditioning and took the fight to the fading challenger. After five rounds, the fight was scored a majority draw and set up the Edgar-Maynard trilogy.

When they squared off again at UFC 136, Maynard once again nearly finished Edgar in the first round. However, Maynard started to fade earlier than he had in their previous match. The rest of the fight was all Edgar and he was able to finish Maynard in the fourth round via TKO.

Since his final bout against Edgar, Maynard has gone an unimpressive 1-2, with his lone win coming by decision over Clay Guida in one of the most boring bouts in recent history. In his two most recent bouts, Maynard has been on the receiving end of two one-sided ass kickings as he was finished by TKO in the first round by both TJ Grant and Nate Diaz.

The general rule of thumb in the UFC is “three strikes and you’re out.” There have been a few exceptions to this rule over the years, but don’t expect Maynard to be one of those exceptions should he suffer defeat once again Saturday night. With as horrible he has looked in his most recent bouts, it appears Gray Maynard is in a must win situation. Should he fall to Ross Pearson, expect Maynard to be fighting inside the World Series of Fighting or Bellator cage for the remainder of his career.