After last week’s 3 UFC event weekend the fun doesn’t stop, with another fight night card on Wednesday, July 13th in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The card was originally headlined by a lightweight scrap between Tony Ferguson and Michael Chiesa, but due to an injury forcing Chiesa off the card, the co-main event of John Lineker and Michael Mcdonald was bumped up to the main event. Let’s take a look at which fights have the best chance for the underdog taking home the win and some possible bets to help make you earn a profit.

1. Michael Mcdonald (+155) –

The #5 ranked Michael Mcdonald is going into this fight with a 6-inch reach advantage over John Lineker and that is something that you must take into consideration going into this bout. Although Lineker has the striking power to take out any fighter in the division, his size is always going to be a huge disadvantage for him. People can argue that  in his last 2 fights up a weight class at Bantamweight he has shown that giving up size didn’t matter, knocking out Fransico Rivera in the first round giving up 6 inches and dominating Rob Font to a decision giving up 6 inches, but I believe Mcdonald is a much better fighter than both of those opponents and will be able to use those 6 inches to his advantage. In both of those victories by Lineker, he was able to turn the fight into a brawl which will always favor him, so Mcdonald will have to use a game plan where he can avoid that by keeping his distance. This is also a 5 round fight now that is is the main event and Lineker has shown that he doesn’t have the best gas tank. Mcdonald has the better cardio going into this fight and the later the fight goes, the more it is going to favor him. The first round of this fight is the only thing that worries me a bit, but if Mcdonald can be technical and frustrate Lineker early, then I see Mcdonald getting the decision or possibly a late stoppage.

2. Eric Spicely (+210) –

Eric Spicely is coming off his stint on TUF 23 in which he lost in the semi-finals to Andrew Sanchez, the fighter who went on to win the competition. Spicely has an impressive record of 8-0 and his biggest strength is his ground game, which is somewhere that Sam Alvey never likes to be in his fights. Sam Alvey is also coming off 2 losses respectively to Derek Brunson and Elias Theodora. Alvey is making a very quick turnaround after a very frustrating and unimpressive performance in a fight where he couldn’t get off any offense. Theodora gave a blueprint to exactly what you need to do in order to beat Alvey. Alvey is going to want to keep this fighting standing and Spicely is going to be looking to take it to the ground. Both fighters are a bit one dimensional, but I look for Spicely to get this fight to the ground and edge out a decision or possibly lock in a submission. This fight is going to depend on how good Alvey’s takedown defense holds up but at +210, I see some value in the underdog.

Bets to make:

Parlay of Ben Nguyen (-125) and Kyle Noke vs Keita Nakamura over 2.5 rounds (-200)= +170

Ben Nguyen has looked nothing short of fantastic in his 2 fights in the UFC, finishing both in the first round against respectable opponents in Ryan Benoit and Alptekin Ozkilic. He is facing his toughest test to date in Louis Smolka who is 4-1 with the promotion. Nguyen has much better wrestling then Smolka and has significantly more power in the stand-up. Nguyen is also on an 8 fight winning streak with 6 by finish dating back to 2010 when he was in a different division. Both fighters are well-rounded, but I feel Nguyen is the more well-rounded fighter in this bout. Smolka seems to start off slow at times and that is something he can’t do against a fighter as aggressive as Nguyen who at the start of the bell is going to be coming forward looking for the finish. I believe that Nguyen will come out fast and hurt Smolka standing, earning the early stoppage.

Kyle Noke vs Keita Nakamura is a fight between two very tough fighters who are both well-rounded. Kyle Noke is an extremely tough veteran that is always incredibly hard to put away, and Nakamura’s recent bouts have shown how tough he is as well . Both fighters are pretty evenly matched, although I favor Noke in the standup, I believe Nakamura might have a slight advantage in the grappling. Regardless of wherever this fight takes place, I don’t see either fighter being able to finish the other and see a ton of value in this fight going to the judges for a decision.

About The Author

Jake Schneider
Staff Writer

Jake Schneider is a student at the University of Rhode Island who is currently looking to pursue a double major in Communications and Journalism. He is an MMA fanatic who has been following the sport for years. He began to share his wealth of knowledge and opinions on the sport to many of his family members and friends as well as various MMA forums online. His love and passion for the sport has been able to make many people that are a part of his life fans of mixed martial arts as well. His insight of the sport both inside and outside of the cage is what makes his analysis on fights and individual fighters so well informed.